The IPCC Reports: Relationship to Planning

By Megan S. Lewis, AICP

Perhaps second only to An Inconvenient Truth in the urgency of its message, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) this spring has brought the point solidly home that global climate change is here, and if action is not taken soon, future generations will suffer irreversible consequences.

While the topic of global climate and atmospheric emissions may seem beyond the daily scope of U.S. planners, a review of the three IPCC summary reports for policy makers indicates the opposite: Planners are now at the forefront of actions that must be taken to reduce — and perhaps even reverse — the climate change problem.

The first report provides a summary of the science — what is causing climate change? The second report outlines the expected impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change. The third report addresses mitigation of climate change. The text below provides a brief summary of key points from each report that have relationships to planning.

Note that for many of the bullet items, the language is almost entirely verbatim, to ensure that the IPCC's scientific conclusions are accurately presented.

IPCC Working Group Report 1: The Physical Science Basis
The first report focuses on understanding the science behind climate change. It looks at the human and natural drivers of climate change, what level of climate change has been observed to date, and what is projected for climate change in the future. The full policy maker summary is available by clicking the blue report title above.

Among the outcomes of this report that are connected to planning are the following.

• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750.
• Carbon dioxide is the most important human-made greenhouse gas because of the high level of scientific understanding of its relationship to global climate.
• Global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change (emphasis added).
• Fossil fuel use is the primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial period. Land-use change provides another significant but smaller contribution.
• Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 to 2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
• Recent weather trends that have been assessed for human influence over them and for which the connection ranges from "likely" to "more likely than not" include:
• Warmer and fewer cold days and nights over most land areas         
• Warmer and more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas          
• Warm spells/heat waves and increase in frequency over most land areas.    
• Heavy precipitation events and increase in frequency (or proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls) over most areas
• Increase in areas affected by droughts                                            
• Increase in intense tropical cyclone activity                         
• Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis)
    
• Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in human-made greenhouse gas concentrations.
• Human influence is now found to also be affecting ocean warming, continental average temperature, temperature extremes, and wind patterns.
• Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century.
• Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries ... even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized.

IPCC Working Group Report 2: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability
The second IPCC report summarizes impacts of climate change in certain sectors (fresh water resources, ecosystems, food and forests, coastal systems, settlements, and health, generally) and by regions of the world. The full policy maker summary is available by clicking the blue report title above.

For North America, the following impacts are projected.

• Water: Warming in western mountains is projected to cause decreased snowpack, more winter flooding, and reduced summer flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated water resources.
• Wildfires: Disturbances from pests, diseases, and fire are projected to have increasing impacts on forests, with an extended period of high fire risk and large increases in area burned.
• Agriculture: Moderate climate change in the early decades of the century is projected to increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5 to 20%, but with important variability among regions. Major challenges are projected for crops that are near the warm end of their suitable range or depend on highly used water resources.
• Heat Events: Cities that currently experience heat waves are expected to be further challenged by an increased number, intensity, and duration of heat waves during the course of the century, with potential for adverse health impacts. Elderly populations are most at risk.
• Coastal areas: Coastal communities and habitats will be increasingly stressed by climate change impacts interacting with development and pollution. Population growth and the rising value of infrastructure in coastal areas increase vulnerability to climate variability and future climate change, with losses projected to increase if the intensity of tropical storms increases. Current adaptation is uneven and readiness for increased exposure is low.

For the weather trends listed in the Working Group Report 1, the major impacts for the sector defined as industry, settlement, and society are anticipated as follows.

1. Over most land areas, warmer and fewer cold days and nights, and warmer and more frequent hot days and nights.

Major impacts:

• Reduced energy demand for heating;
• increased demand for cooling;
• declining air quality in cities;
• reduced disruption to transport due to snow, ice;
• effects on winter tourism

2. Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas.

Major impacts:

• Reduction in quality of life for people in warm areas without appropriate housing;
• impacts on elderly, very young and poor.

3. Heavy precipitation events. Frequency increases over most areas.

Major impacts:

• Disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and societies due to flooding;
• pressures on urban and rural infrastructures;
• loss of property

4. Area affected by drought increases

Major impacts:

• Water shortages for settlements, industry and societies;
• reduced hydropower generation potentials;
• potential for population migration

5. Intense tropical cyclone activity increases.

Major impacts:

• Disruption by flood and high winds;
• withdrawal of risk coverage in vulnerable areas by private insurers,
• potential for population migrations,
• loss of property

6. Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis)

Major impacts:

• Costs of coastal protection versus costs of land-use relocation;
• potential for movement of populations and infrastructure;
• also see tropical cyclones above

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation
Regarding the current knowledge about how to respond to climate change, the report provides the following general information on mitigation (reducing impacts from actions) and adaptation (changing behavior and activity in response to observed and anticipated climate change impacts).

• Many impacts of climate change can be avoided, reduce, or delayed by mitigation.
• However, adaptation will be necessary to address impacts resulting from unavoidable warming, due to past emissions.
• Adaptation is occurring now, but on a limited basis.
• Examples of adaptation include infrastructure projects to defend against coastal flooding and water management policies.
• While a wide array of adaptation options is available, more extensive adaptation is required to reduce vulnerability to future climate change.
• With increasing climate change, the options for successful adaptation diminish and associated costs increase.
• One way to increasing adaptive capacity is by introducing the consideration of climate change impacts in development planning, including adaptation measures in land-use planning and infrastructure design (emphasis added), and measures to reduce vulnerability in existing disaster risk reduction strategies.
• A portfolio of measures that includes mitigation, adaptation, technology development, and research can diminish the risks associated with climate change.

Relationship to Sustainable Development

• Future vulnerability to climate change depends on the development pathway taken. The full report looks at different development scenarios (income levels, technological development) to understand vulnerability variations.
• Sustainable development (as defined by The Brundtland Commission) can reduce vulnerability to climate change by enhancing adaptive capacity and increasing resilience.
• However, few plans that promote sustainability have explicitly included either adapting to climate change impacts to promoting adaptive capacity.
• The UN's eight Millennium Development Goals are one measure of progress towards sustainable development. Climate change could impede achievement of these goals.

IPCC Working Group III Report: Mitigation of Climate Change
This report discusses mitigation of climate change, focusing on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic, and social aspects. After a section on greenhouse gas emission trends, the report is organized into four sections on mitigation:

• Short and long-term mitigation across different economic sectors (until 2030)
• Mitigation beyond 2030
• Policies, measures, and instruments to mitigate climate change
• Sustainable development and climate change mitigation

Of these four sections, all but "Mitigation beyond 2030" has information that is directly relevant to local planning and planners. Below are key points from these three sections.

The full policy maker summary is available by clicking the blue report title above.

Short and long-term mitigation across different economic sectors (until 2030)
The report looks at seven economic sectors and key mitigation technologies with the largest economic potential, shown in the table below.

• In addition to the technology-based mitigation strategies listed here, other strategies across all sectors that can contribute to climate change mitigation across all sectors include urban planning that reduces demand for travel and information and education that reduces car use and leads to more efficient driving patterns.
• No one sector or technology alone can address the entire mitigation challenge.
• Investing in end-use energy efficiency improvements is often more cost-effective than increasing energy supply to satisfy demand for energy services.
• Efficiency improvement has a positive effect on energy security, local and regional air pollution abatement, and employment.
• Renewable energy generally has a positive effect on energy security, employment, and air quality.
• Given costs relative to other supply options, renewable electricity, which accounted for 18 percent of the electricity supply in 2005, can have a 30 to 35 percent share of the total electricity supply in 2030.

Policies, measures, and instruments to mitigate climate change
General findings about the performance of policies:

• Integrate climate policies into broader development policies, which make implementation and overcoming barriers easier.
• Regulations and standards generally provide some certainty about emission levels. However, they may not induce innovations and more advanced technologies.
• Taxes and charges can set a price for carbon, but cannot guarantee a particular level of emissions. Literature identifies taxes as an efficient way of internalizing costs of greenhouse gas emissions.
• Tradable permits will establish a carbon price. The volume of allowed emissions determines their environmental effectiveness, while the allocation of permits has distributional consequences. Fluctuation in the price of carbon makes it difficult to estimate the total cost of complying with emission permits.
• Financial incentives (subsidies and tax credits) are frequently used by governments to stimulate the development and diffusion of new technologies. While economic costs are generally higher than for the instruments listed above, they are often critical to overcome barriers.
• Voluntary agreements between industry and governments are politically attractive, raise awareness among stakeholders, and have played a role in the evolution of many national policies. The majority of agreements have not achieved significant emissions reductions beyond business as usual. However, some recent agreements, in a few countries, have accelerated the application of best available technology and led to measurable emission reductions.
• Information instruments (e.g. awareness campaigns) may positively affect environmental quality by promoting informed choices and possibly contributing to behavioral change, however, their impact on emissions has not been measured yet.
• Research, Development, and Demonstration (RD&D) can stimulate technological advances, reduce costs, and enable progress toward stabilization.
• See Table SPM.7 on pages 31-32 of the policy makers summary report for selected sectoral policies, measures, and instruments that have shown to be environmentally effective in the respective sector in a number of national cases.

Sustainable development and climate change mitigation
There is a growing understanding of the possibilities to choose and implement mitigation options in several sectors to realize synergies and avoid conflicts with other dimensions of sustainable development.

• Addressing climate change can be considered an integral element of sustainable development policies. Changes in development paths emerge from the interactions of public and private decision processes involving government, business, and civil society, many of which are not traditionally considered as climate policy. This process is most effective when actors participate equitably and decentralized decision making processes are coordinated.
• Climate change policies related to energy efficiency and renewable energy are often economically beneficial, improve energy security, and reduce local pollutant emissions.
• Other energy supply mitigation options can be designed to also achieve sustainable development benefits such as avoided displacement of local populations, job creation, and health benefits.
• Reducing both loss of natural habitat and deforestation can have significant biodiversity, soil and water conservation benefits, and can be implemented in a socially and economically sustainable manner.
• There are also good possibilities for reinforcing sustainable development through mitigation actions in the waste management, transportation, and buildings sectors.
• Making development more sustainable can enhance both mitigation and adaptation capacity, and reduce emissions and vulnerability to climate change.