Travel Demand Forecasting and Model Application
Friday, November 18, 2016
9 a.m. - noon EST
Fort Lauderdale, FL, United States
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The topic of the November 18, 2016 FSUTMS Users Group Meeting is Travel Demand Forecasting and Model Application. This meeting will feature presentations on the assessment of accuracy and uncertainty of travel demand forecasting, developing travel demand models using AirSage data, and evaluating the impact of climate change on local transportation network. The meeting includes three presentations:
The first presentation is titled “Transit Forecasting Uncertainty & Accuracy”, and It will be given by Mr. Dave Schmitt, AICP, Connetics Transportation Group (CTG). Accurate forecasts of benefits and costs from planned transportation investments are required for good decision making. To assess the accuracy of transit forecasts, Mr. Schmitt has developed a database recording the characteristics of 62 transit forecasts, including components of the projects and forecasts. The database includes an assessment of the ridership forecast inputs by assessing the accuracy of “upstream forecasts” that travel forecasters are entirely dependent upon. The presentation will include the following items:
• Descriptions of the database’s transit projects, components, and accuracy assessment criteria,
• Review of the challenges the author faced when gathering the information for the database and recommendations for improved forecast archival,
• Tabulations of the database that provide preliminary insight into key forecasting accuracy questions:
o Has forecasting accuracy increased over time?
o Is forecasting accuracy better for extensions, new lines or new systems?
o Is forecasting accuracy better for certain transit modes?
o Does accuracy improve throughout project development?
o What are the main contributors of forecast uncertainty?
o Are forecasts made closer to project opening more accurate than those made further from opening?
o Are “upstream forecasts” always accurate when the ridership forecast is accurate?
Finally, the presentation will highlight briefly two efforts underway examining traffic forecasting accuracy using a similar process.
The second presentation is titled “Development of Standardized Models in Kentucky Using AirSage Data”, by Mr. Johnny Han, Ph.D. The Corradino Group. The Kentucky Transportation Cabinet (KYTC) has established a state-of-the-practice standardized procedure for developing regional models. Corradino has been using big data and developing innovative analysis methods to enhance the modeling process in past years. This presentation is based on Corradino’s work for developing the KYTC’s District 9 Regional Model, the most recent regional model in Kentucky.
The third presentation is titled “Storm Surge, Sea Level Rise, and Transportation Network Disruption in Southeast Florida”, by Ms. Yingfei Huang, Cambridge Systematics, Inc. The transportation network in the Southeast Florida region exhibits significant vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) and other climate change stressors. This project supplements the FHWA-funded South Florida Climate Change and Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Pilot Project by evaluating the potential risk of storm surge and sea level rise on transportation facilities and regional mobility. A scenario approach was used and three historic storm tracks. The Southeast Florida Regional Planning Model (SERPM) used as a key tool for evaluating mobility impacts in terms of vehicle and transit trips unable to be completed, vehicle miles and hours traveled, and basic economic information.
By attending the Users Group meeting, participants will learn the new process to assess the accuracy of travel demand forecasts; innovative methodologies for regional model development; and using the regional model to evaluate the impact of climate change on the transportation network in Southeast Florida.
Johnny Han Ph.D. P.E.
David Schmitt, AICP
Marilyn Mammano, firstname.lastname@example.org