Establishing the Baseline in Community Plans: Sources & Methodologies



Friday, May 19, 2017
10:45 a.m. - 12:15 p.m. CDT

San Francisco, CA, United States

CM | 1.50

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Large scale community plans present real challenges in establishing baseline conditions. Because on-the-ground surveys of existing land use are costly and time consuming, socioeconomic and assessor tax information data is often used as a surrogate to create the baseline for the existing conditions for large geographic areas underlying the development of an associated plan., Often socioeconomic information needs to be converted to land use quantities and vice versa in order to provide the best possible estimate of the baseline. Specifically, population and household data often needs to be translated in single and multiple family dwelling units and business sector-specific employment requires conversion into an overall estimate of non-residential space. Other than the census, the most consistent source for creating population, and employment baselines are metropolitan planning organizations, such as SCAG, SANDAG, ABAG, etc. These organizations, for their own transportation planning purposes, typically create baselines and allocate growth to sub-geographies (transportation analysis zones) based on a variety of criteria. None of these agencies will “guarantee” that allocation to small areas is entirely accurate. As a result, these high level socioeconomic allocations must be carefully examined by local planning agencies to ensure that the allocations are substantially reflective of estimated conditions on the ground, before the first plan policy statement is written. This session will cover the different sources for obtaining data and methodologies for checking and cross checking assumptions, using GIS mapping to show population/housing/employment distributions, densities and conversion factors, and comparing to recognized benchmarks to add accuracy and credibility to the community planning process.



Terry Hayes

Mr. Hayes has more than 39 years of experience in project management, agency coordination and public presentations. His project experience includes the environmental evaluation of a wide range of public works/infrastructure improvements, transportation, and land use projects. He has participated in the preparation of guideline and training programs for ... Read More

Jessica Kirchner Flores

Jessica is an environmental planner with more than 12 years of experience preparing CEQA/NEPA documents. Her experience includes preparation of environmental documents for large infrastructure projects and plans. Read More

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