Travel Demand Forecasting and Model Application

APA Florida Chapter, Broward Section


Friday, June 16, 2017
9 a.m. - noon EDT

Fort Lauderdale, FL, United States

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The topic of the June 16, 2017 FSUTMS Users Group Meeting is Travel Demand Forecasting and Model Application. The meeting includes three presentations:

 The first presentation is titled “Guidelines for adding new Traffic Analysis zones/Micro Analysis Zones (TAZ/MAZ) in SERPM7 Activity Based Model- A case study of a regional traffic impact analysis”, and It will be given by Mr.Raghu Sidharthan, PhD of WSP.  

 The objective of this set of guidelines is to provide SERPM7 users with step-by-step procedure to add Micro Analysis Zones (MAZ) and/or Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) to SERPM 7.0. The guidelines will cover updates that are to be made to the PopSyn and CT-RAMP input files, network and skim files, as well as the conventions to be followed while giving new TAZ/MAZ IDs. The results of a Development of Regional Impact (DRI) analysis using this method of adding a new TAZ/MAZ will be presented.

 The second presentation is titled “Mesoscopic Applications of Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models – Four case-studies”, by Ms. Ana Elias, Ph.D. of Jacobs. The presentation will describe four different real-world applications of mesoscopic models with dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) capabilities, as follows:

1)      Traffic diversion caused by capacity reduction  (Fort Lauderdale, FL)

The project included a capacity reduction along SE 17th Street in the City of Fort Lauderdale to accommodate premium transit running exclusively in an existing travel lane. The mesoscopic model was used to analyze the potential rerouting of traffic with and without additional capacity provided on a parallel facility.


2)      Impacts on traffic due to changes on arterial network layout (Tampa, FL)

The project included several alternatives of street layout (one-way, two-way streets with and without on-street parking) proposed for developers nearby the Selmon Expressway in Tampa. The mesoscopic model was applied to determine the impact of the different arterial layouts on the on- and off-ramps of the Expressway.


3)      Road closures for MOT purposes (San Antonio, TX)

Texas DOT was doing repair in several bridges along IH10/IH35. The work included several major shut-downs of freeway segments. The mesoscopic model was used to test the different closure scenarios, as suggested by the Department, and analyze the overall impact on the network to determine the best sequencing of closures.


4)      Analyzing managed lanes performance (Dallas, TX)

The Lindon B. Johnson (LBJ) freeway in Texas has an extensive express lanes deployment. As part of a Traffic and Revenue (T&R) study, configuration of gantries and toll schedules are being developed. The mesoscopic model with tolling diversion algorithm is being calibrated to emulate the traditional static model used by the T&R team, already calibrated for LBJ.


The third presentation is titled “ELTOD Applications in Planning Studies - A Case-Study of a PD&E Project Application in South Florida”, by Mr. César A. Segovia, AICP, of AECOM/Turnpike
In this presentation, a general overview of the Express Lanes Time of Day (ELToD) model will be presented, including:

·         A description of what it is and why is important.

·         A PD&E project application relevant to South Florida will be described.

·         Also, the future of ELToD and next steps in this model development.


By attending the Users Group meeting, participants will learn the planning applications using travel demand forecasts; innovative methodologies for regional model development; and using the Dynamic Traffic Assignment Models in transportation planning.

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Cesar Segovia, AICP

Mr. Segovia is an AECOM senior transportation planner with experience in transportation planning, traffic engineering and a variety of civil engineering projects in the U.S. and overseas. His most recent primary responsibilities have included transportation planning, travel demand model development and validation studies, toll feasibility analysis, traffic impact studies ... Read More

Raghu Sidharthan Phd

Raghu Sidharthan is a travel demand modeler at WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff, with seven years of experience working on transportation planning projects. Raghu has worked extensively on estimating, calibrating and implementing activity-based models for large metropolitan areas. He has published several research articles in varied topics such as land use analysis ... Read More

Ana Elias PhD

Dr. Elias has more than 25 years of experience in several areas of the transportation field such as computer modeling and simulation, transportation planning, traffic engineering, and transportation economy. With regards to computer applications for transportation, Dr. Elias’ background in simulation, statistics and programming has led the foundation of a ... Read More

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