Scenario Planning in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba

Tuesday, May 9, 2017 | 11 a.m. - 12:15 p.m.
CM | 1.25
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You'll learn about:

  • Scenario planning methods that may be used to create resilient communities.

  • Exploring new planning possibilities, and multiple outcomes, after decades of status quo.  

  • Collaborative planning constrained by diplomatic relations.

  • Military Planning insight and lessons learned from contingency planning

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba is well known for the current prison mission; however, the base also has a fleet support, and homeland security mission for migrant movements and surges. The base has a closed border with mainland Cuba and must provide all logistics support to the population.  All supplies are moved on or off the base via airplane or ship. The population is mostly transient staying between 3 months to 5 years, except for the third country nationals who have been hired by contractors and have stayed decades. There is also a small, but aging population of Cuban nationals who have special protection and have lived on base since the 1960s. The future of Guantanamo Bay is filled with many possibilities. Will the prison close? Will the borders open? Will there be a migrant surge? This session will discuss Master Planning through scenario planning, including a group participatory element, as a way to prepare and plan for the future.



Sean Ebersold , AICP , Ecology and Environment, Inc. , Wellington , FL (see bio)
Amanda Smith , Middleburg , FL
Cynthia Lintz , AICP , FPO , AE (see bio)
Eric Denfeld , Orange Park , FL