Demographic Multipliers → Development Impacts

Sunday, May 7, 2017 | 9:30 a.m. - 10:45 a.m.
CM | 1.25
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You’ll learn about:

  • Demographic changes and housing market trends since 2006, the date that statewide demographic multipliers were released.
  • How to make demographic multipliers locally specific.
  • The potential of using Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) records to develop extended list of multipliers and planning ratios.
  • The value of using locally specific and most updated multipliers illustrated through case studies.

The last time statewide demographic multipliers were prepared, they were based on Census PUMS records collected in the late 1990s, but they no longer reflect current demographic conditions. To minimize estimation biases of development impacts, analysts should use multipliers that are a) current, b) locally specific, and c) closely matching the attributes of the development.

This session discusses the state-of-the-art in generating demographic multipliers. With advancements in data mining technology, we can now generate demographic multipliers annually within weeks after updated ACS PUMS datasets are released. The methodological improvements allow us to deliver multipliers for small geographic areas and develop new multipliers and planning ratios by a variety of housing configurations and household attributes, such as age-restricted development, TOD, and condominiums. 

First, panelists outline demographic trends and the how statewide multipliers have changed in the past two decades. Panelists cover methodological improvements, show the local variation in multipliers, and the potential of developing customized multipliers. Second, panelists discuss how these new sets of multipliers can be used in application, and the implications for development approval and smart growth. Intermediate session for experienced planners.

Demographic Multipliers, Development Impacts (NPC17 S499 Handout)

Speakers

Sidney Wong , Wynnewood , PA (see bio)
Daniel Miles , Philadelphia , PA (see bio)