Demographic Multipliers → Development Impacts
You’ll learn about:
- Demographic changes and housing market trends since 2006, the date that statewide demographic multipliers were released.
- How to make demographic multipliers locally specific.
- The potential of using Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) records to develop extended list of multipliers and planning ratios.
- The value of using locally specific and most updated multipliers illustrated through case studies.
The last time statewide demographic multipliers were prepared, they were based on Census PUMS records collected in the late 1990s, but they no longer reflect current demographic conditions. To minimize estimation biases of development impacts, analysts should use multipliers that are a) current, b) locally specific, and c) closely matching the attributes of the development.
This session discusses the state-of-the-art in generating demographic multipliers. With advancements in data mining technology, we can now generate demographic multipliers annually within weeks after updated ACS PUMS datasets are released. The methodological improvements allow us to deliver multipliers for small geographic areas and develop new multipliers and planning ratios by a variety of housing configurations and household attributes, such as age-restricted development, TOD, and condominiums.
First, panelists outline demographic trends and the how statewide multipliers have changed in the past two decades. Panelists cover methodological improvements, show the local variation in multipliers, and the potential of developing customized multipliers. Second, panelists discuss how these new sets of multipliers can be used in application, and the implications for development approval and smart growth. Intermediate session for experienced planners.
Confirmed SpeakerSidney Wong is a project lead of Community Data Analytics, specializing in demographic multipliers and fiscal impact studies. He has extensive experience in planning practices and research experiences in public finance, infrastructure, zoning, economic development, community GIS, and planning methods. Dr. Wong is a specialist in fiscal impact study and Mount Laurel affordable housing. Since 2016, Dr. Wong has presented in the Capital Region (DC Metro Area), Pennsylvania, and New Jersey chapter conferences on estimating development impacts. In 2015, Dr. Wong served as a member of APA’s Community Planning Assistance Team for North Beach, MD and between 2009 and 2013 he served in the Executive Committee of the APA Maryland Chapter. He was a senior consultant with the World Bank for South Asia projects in 2015 and for Asian Technical Department in 1991. He is a former director of a HUD Community Outreach Partnership Center in Miami, and a former planner and zoning officer in Hong Kong. Apart from being an APA member, Dr. Wong was a chartered member of the Royal Town Planning Institute and the Hong Kong Institute of Planners, which where he serves as the honorary editor for their journal. Dr. Wong has taught planning and urban studies at the University of Pennsylvania, Temple University, Drexel University, Morgan State University, and Florida International University. He wrote “Architects and Planners in the Middle of a Road War” in the Journal of Planning History documenting the rebellion of planners against the “road gang” and “Searching for a Modern and Humanistic Planning in China” in the Journal of Architecture and Planning Research. He earned his Ph.D. in Planning at UC Berkeley, with the Barclay Jones award of the Best Doctoral Dissertation for his research on enterprise zone programs.
Confirmed SpeakerDaniel Miles, PhD, is a Director at Econsult Solutions, Inc. He was the speaker of “Projecting Development Impacts for Sustainable and Fiscally Responsible Growth,” in the 2016 APA National Capital Area Chapter Conference. At ESI, Dr. Miles leads economic analysis projects across a variety of sectors and industries. Prior to joining ESI, he was a Senior Economist in the New York office of Oxford Economics, where he led a multinational team of economists. His projects included estimating the economic impacts of laser fusion energy and the size and impacts of the Longevity Economy, analyzing the public/private partnership policies of several Asian countries and developing a cigarette market and excise tax forecasting model of the Philippines. From 2008 to 2011, Daniel was an Associate at Econsult Corporation. He contributed to a number of studies, including evaluating the financial feasibility and economic impact of using tolls to finance transportation infrastructure improvements, the preparation of an economic development plan for an older industrial city, and estimating the economic value of permanently preserved open space. In 2011, Dr. Miles received his Ph.D. in Public Policy with a concentration in Economics from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County, where he was supported by a prestigious National Science Foundation IGERT Fellowship. He earned his Master’s in Public Policy in Environmental Policy from the University of Maryland School Of Public Policy.