Enrollment Forecasting

Request for Proposals

Project Client Organization: Somerville Public Schools

Project Overview. Somerville, Massachusetts is a city in flux. Regional economic trends, significant development, and raising housing prices have led to shifts in the demographics of the city. Somerville, along with neighboring Cambridge, has the state's smallest population of children as a percent of all residents. And, children in Somerville are almost twice as likely to be living in poverty than their Commonwealth peers. Despite a city population that has been rising and changing, Somerville Public Schools (SPS) student enrollment has been relatively stable for the last 15 years. In order to plan for future programming, capital projects, and school assignment strategy, the District and School Committee seek a model to reliably forecast the next five years of district enrollment. We also seek enrollment forecast estimates for years six to ten, recognizing these will be inherently less confident, but still useful for facility planning purposes.

SPS requires data for strategic guidance of future decision-making and is therefore seeking a partner to engage in enrollment and data projections to provide us a strong foundation for future planning. Given the complexity of our shifting city, we seek to consider enrollment from various angles, such as changes in birth rate, housing stock, school perception, and in/out-migration. In this light, we seek a firm that can think beyond a single projection, and rather consider multiple factors and possible effects on future enrollment.

This initiative is part of the School District and School Committee's commitment to educational equity. Somerville School Committee adopted a Districtwide Equity Policy as an umbrella for this effort. This policy exists to confront a legacy of institutional racism that results in achievement and opportunity gaps.

Scope of Procurement. Somerville Public Schools seek proposals from individuals and organizations to work with senior City and School District staff to:

1. Inventory, analyze, and synthesize existing relevant data and other resources including but not limited to historic and current student enrollment; also current by school proximity, primary home language, and student socio-economic status (SES); current and projected housing stock affordability, size, and location; capital and facilities plans; and School and District budgets;
2. Illustrate the impact of different enrollment projections and student assignment models based on school proximity, primary home language, and student socio-economic status (SES)–based on but not limited to capacity of school buildings to handle current and future demand; ability for children to walk to their zoned neighborhood school; analysis of regional housing trends and planned City changes in zoning; level of integration of student populations resulting from different variables; effect(s) on Municipal and District budget; and cost of building additional or maintaining current school buildings;
3. Develop an interactive model with a range of likely District enrollment projections for SY2022-SY2026; provide less statistically confident District enrollment projections for SY2027-2031 for facility planning purposes; variables should be modifiable by the District/City; and assumptions should be explicitly named.
4. Produce a brief written report and presentation which will be presented to the School Committee in Spring 2023.

Project Goals and Deliverables

1. Population and Enrollment Projections. Five-year population and enrollment projections that capture current conditions and future enrollment projections. Ten-year population and enrollment estimate for facility planning purposes.
2. Final Report and Presentation to School Committee. Regular updates and a final report and presentation to be presented to the School Committee for feedback.
3. Interactive Enrollment Model. Develop an interactive model with a range of likely District enrollment projections for SY2021-SY2026.

Format of Proposals. Individuals and organizations interested in conducting this work should submit a written proposal by Tuesday May 24th, by 4:00 PM to:

Francis Gorski,
Chief Financial Officer
fgorski@k12.somerville.ma.us

Proposals should include the following sections and be no more than 10 pages in length:

1. Background and Qualifications
2. Example(s) of past work with Districts, preferably comparable to Somerville, MA
3. Proposed Approach, General Timeline, and Team (including resume of lead consultant)
4. Proposed Budget

Competitive proposals will demonstrate a successful track record of addressing equity issues and engaging diverse stakeholder groups authentically. Proposals will be read by a Screening Committee and scored 1-5 for each section. 2-3 proposals will be selected for interviews. Based on interviews, one or more applicants will be invited to negotiate a contract. Somerville Public Schools reserves the right to select elements from multiple proposals.