The Use of Foresight and Scenario Planning in Hazard Mitigation and Climate Adaptation Planning

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This edition of PAS Memo is available free to all thanks to financial support from FEMA through the Cooperating Technical Partners program.

Planners today are increasingly familiar with the concept of scenario planning. Relatively new to planners, however, is the practice of foresight, which enables practitioners to better prepare for an unpredictable future by identifying and considering external drivers of change that are outside of our control.

As a key component of the practice of foresight, exploratory scenario planning offers significant benefits for planning in dynamic and complex systems. Thus, it can be a particularly useful tool in planning for natural hazards and adapting to climate change, given the complexity and uncertainty involved in both of these areas.

This PAS Memo offers guidance to planners on how to expand their use of foresight through exploratory scenario planning in both the hazard mitigation and climate adaptation fields. It defines foresight and scenario planning, discusses how they are related, and explains how they can be useful when planning in highly dynamic and complex systems, such as hazard mitigation and climate adaptation planning. Practical examples on the use of scenario planning in adapting to climate change in Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and in Seattle are discussed. Finally, key action steps are presented for planners interested in using scenario planning techniques in their hazard mitigation and climate adaptation efforts.

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